Should Donald Trump seek the Republican nomination for president of the United Sates?
With the election of 2024 two years away, that is what Republicans around the country are pondering.
When this question comes up in my conversations with others, there is almost always a pause, often accompanied with a deep breath, before responding. This is true whether the one responding is one of my friends or the one responding is me.
Clearly, Republicans who never liked Trump, especially those associated with the Lincoln Project, would prefer that he stay retired from public life. And of course, there are true-blue MAGA loyalists who are 100% behind him running. However, there are those who strongly supported him in 2020 (and possibly 2016) who are not sure if it would be the best idea for him to run for a third time.
There are good arguments on both sides.
Arguments for:
During his presidency, Trump advocated policies such as tax reform (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) and reducing federal regulations (Executive Order 13771), which contributed to a strong economy.
He prioritized fighting international terrorism. He defeated the Islamic State. He also ordered the assassination of Iran’s Qasem Soleimani, who was responsible for killing hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Trump, in his effort to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution, worked with the Federalist Society and The Heritage Foundation to select over two hundred nominees to serve as federal judges, including three to the Supreme Court.
To bring peace to the Middle East, the Trump Administration brokered the Abraham Accords, where United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco signed agreements to normalize relations with Israel. If he were sworn in for a second term, more Arab countries would have joined the accords.
These are just some of accomplishments of the Trump presidency. Trump, if he ran, could make a persuasive case that, if re-elected, he would continue the great work during his four years in office.
Arguments against:
Born June 14, 1946, Trump would be 78 years, seven months old on Inauguration Day in 2025, and would the oldest man to take the presidential oath of office. Joe Biden was only 78 years, two months old when he took the oath in 2021. Despite Trump’s apparent good physical and mental health, one could argue that he may be too old for to meet the demands of the office.
Trump has dominated national news coverage since he announced for president in June 2015. Even out of office, he gets nearly the level coverage as when he was in office. If he runs and wins in 2024, it will be nine and a half years of coverage, with the potential of four additional years. The Republican Party’s primary voters could conclude that continued intense – mostly negative – press coverage is more drama than they are willing to accept. It might be better to nominate Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis.
His televised rallies from around the country show high levels of enthusiasm from his supporters. Trump still energizes the Republican base. The trouble is that Trump also energizes the Democratic base. Democrats of all stripes – from moderates to liberals – hate Trump. Of course, nearly all loyal Democrats will oppose any Republican nominee, but it would not be with the same ferocity as it would be with Trump. They, along with their Republican allies, will by hook or by crook see to it that he is not re-elected.
Will he?
Given that he drops big hints in interviews and at his rallies that he is likely to run, and given that he feels that he was wrongly denied a second term in 2020 due to alleged voter fraud, and given that the FBI recently raided his Florida home, it is a virtual certainty that Trump will run.
It is worth noting though that a Trump candidacy is not only not a lock for victory in November 2024, but there is also no guarantee that he would win the Republican nomination. While Trump would be the favorite to win the nomination, should DeSantis throw his hat into the ring, it would be a competitive contest, especially in the early primary and caucus states.
If Trump runs and wins a second term, there would be another benefit for everyone, both here and abroad. When a president first takes office, foreign leaders size up the new executive. They, especially our adversaries, will try to determine what they think they are able to get away with (think Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Cuban Missile Crisis). Having already served as president, Trump has already gone through this vetting. He has demonstrated himself to be a strong global leader. One key advantage of him winning in 2024 is that on day one there will be adult supervision on the world stage. Nations like Russia and China will be less aggressive in their conduct. This may be the best reason for him to follow Grover Cleveland’s example.
Whatever the merits of a second Trump presidency, the print and television media will mercilessly attack him during the campaign. And it will be uglier than the first two campaigns. The media’s treatment of Trump, however, should have never been a surprise as we have seen this kind of reaction years before Trump sought national office. We once had a leader who, as a populist, spoke on behalf of the people, like Trump. We once had a leader who believed in expanding domestic sources of energy, like Trump. We once had a leader who drew very large crowds at political rallies, like Trump. We once had a leader whose endorsement many Republican candidates sought, like Trump. We once had a leader who was utterly despised by the mainstream media, like Trump. Donald Trump may be the leader of the current Republican Party, but this Republican Party is one that she inspired.
It took eight LONG years to count the votes of the election of 2008.
The result: Sarah. Palin. Won.